2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ TB – Week 11 2020
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
27@24
LA +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 51%Projected margin: -0.8
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but LA won. Projected margin was 0.8 -- the model overestimated by 2.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -195 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
Robert Woods
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Cooper Kupp
WR
210.7SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES