LA @ TB – Week 11 2020
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
27@24
LA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 51%Our line: TB -0.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-103
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.170
-0.015Offense EPA / play+0.119
-0.177Defense EPA / play-0.051
44.5%Offense success %45.9%
39.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but LA won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +173 | -195 |
| Our fair price | +103 | -103 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
Robert Woods
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Cooper Kupp
WR
210.7 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Cooper Kupp92 rec · 974 yd · 3 TD
Robert Woods90 rec · 936 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.2. The market has TB at -4.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, TB 7, LA 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LA +0.162 against TB +0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
