Rams vs Buccaneers – Week 11 2020
LA
TB
LA
AWAY
27@24
LA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 51%Our line: TB -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.170
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
44.5% (20)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but LA won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LAW12 2025 | TB 7, LA 34 | LA | W |
| LA@TBW9 2022 | LA 13, TB 16 | TB | W |
| TB@LAW3 2021 | TB 24, LA 34 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.2. The market has TB at -4.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 27, TB 24. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 11, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, TB 7, LA 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LA +0.162 against TB +0.170.
