PHI @ CLE – Week 11 2020
PHI
CLE
PHI
AWAY
17@22
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 59%Our line: CLE -3.1
CLE
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.089Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.077
40.6%Offense success %46.6%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 3.1. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +122 | -135 |
| Our fair price | +144 | -144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Miles Sanders867 yd · 6 TD
Boston Scott374 yd · 1 TD
Jalen Hurts354 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
Dallas Goedert46 rec · 524 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@PHIW6 2024 | CLE 16, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.1. The market has CLE at -2.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, CLE 16, PHI 20 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: PHI -0.107 against CLE +0.011.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
