Eagles vs Browns – Week 11 2020
PHI
CLE
PHI
AWAY
17@22
CLE BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Cleveland Browns 22.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: CLE 59%Our line: CLE -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.011
-0.089 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (10)
+0.018 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (23)
40.6% (30)Offense success %46.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CLE by 3.1. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@PHIW6 2024 | CLE 16, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.1. The market has CLE at -2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, PHI 17, CLE 22. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -2.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, CLE 16, PHI 20 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: PHI -0.107 against CLE +0.011.
