Panthers vs Cardinals – Week 10 2021
CAR
ARI
CAR
AWAY
34@10
CAR BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 34, Arizona Cardinals 10.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 4 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 67%Our line: ARI -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.093Net EPA / play+0.122
-0.138 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
-0.044 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (6)
40.9% (27)Offense success %46.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 30.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.1. The market has ARI at -7.0.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 34, ARI 10. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 10, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 5.5 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CAR 22, ARI 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: CAR -0.093 against ARI +0.122.
