2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ ARI – Week 10 2021
CAR
ARI
CAR
AWAY
34@10
CAR +24
FINAL · WEEK 10
2021 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 67%Projected margin: 7.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
7.2
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 7.2 -- the model overestimated by 31.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -329 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES