Bills vs Dolphins – Week 3 2022
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
19@21
MIA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 19, Miami Dolphins 21.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bills, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: BUF 61%Our line: BUF -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.168Net EPA / play+0.039
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
49.0% (2)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIA won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs MIA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 3.8. The market has BUF at -4.0.
Miami Dolphins won, BUF 19, MIA 21. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 3, the Buffalo Bills were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 7.7 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against MIA +0.039.
