2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ MIA – Week 3 2022
BUF
MIA
BUF
AWAY
19@21
MIA +2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2022 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 61%Projected margin: -1.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 3.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -196 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
395.5SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
316.6SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
177.9SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES