NYJ @ CIN – Week 8 2025
NYJ
CIN
NYJ
AWAY
39@38
NYJ BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 78%Our line: CIN -10.6
CIN
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.6
OUR LINE
-361
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.127Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.147Defense EPA / play+0.130
40.7%Offense success %45.5%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 10.6, the model overestimated by 11.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +210 | -258 |
| Our fair price | +361 | -361 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7 SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7 SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@NYJW3 2022 | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN | W |
| CIN@NYJW8 2021 | CIN 31, NYJ 34 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 10.6. The market has CIN at -5.5.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 27, NYJ 12 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cincinnati Bengals: NYJ -0.274 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
