Jets vs Bengals – Week 8 2025
NYJ
CIN
NYJ
AWAY
39@38
NYJ BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 39, Cincinnati Bengals 38.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 8 Jets, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 78%Our line: CIN -10.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -10.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
40.7% (29)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 10.6, the model overestimated by 11.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@NYJW3 2022 | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN | W |
| CIN@NYJW8 2021 | CIN 31, NYJ 34 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 10.6. The market has CIN at -5.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 39, CIN 38. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -5.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 8, the New York Jets were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 27, NYJ 12 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cincinnati Bengals: NYJ -0.274 against CIN -0.138.
