Vikings vs Chargers – Week 8 2025
MIN
LAC
MIN
AWAY
10@37
LAC BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 10, Los Angeles Chargers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 63%Our line: LAC -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
42.6% (23)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 27. Off by 22.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 24.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MINW3 2023 | LAC 28, MIN 24 | MIN | L |
| MIN@LACW10 2021 | MIN 27, LAC 20 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.3. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, MIN 10, LAC 37. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.2 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 28, MIN 24 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: MIN -0.016 against LAC +0.059.
