Dolphins vs Falcons – Week 8 2025
MIA
ATL
MIA
AWAY
34@10
MIA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 34, Atlanta Falcons 10.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 4 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 70%Our line: ATL -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -7.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.105Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.017 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (24)
+0.088 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.004 (15)
41.9% (27)Offense success %43.7% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but MIA won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 31.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MIAW7 2021 | ATL 30, MIA 28 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 7.0. The market has ATL at -7.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 34, ATL 10. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -7.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 8, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 30, MIA 28 in Week 7 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: MIA -0.105 against ATL -0.018.
