2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ ATL – Week 8 2025
MIA
ATL
MIA
AWAY
34@10
MIA +24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 70%Projected margin: 4.9
ATL
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but MIA won. Projected margin was 4.9 -- the model overestimated by 28.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
370.8SEASON PPR
K.Pitts
TE
210.8SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MIAW7 2021 | ATL 30, MIA 28 | ATL | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES