Vikings vs Commanders – Week 9 2022
MIN
WAS
MIN
AWAY
20@17
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 20, Washington Commanders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 4 Commanders.
Model confidence: MIN 66%Our line: MIN -5.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -5.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.011 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
+0.012 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
44.9% (13)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@MINW14 2025 | WAS 0, MIN 31 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs WAS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.7. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 20, WAS 17. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 4.0 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, WAS 0, MIN 31 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: MIN -0.023 against WAS -0.003.
