Packers vs Lions – Week 9 2022
GB
DET
GB
AWAY
9@15
DET BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 9, Detroit Lions 15.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 5 Lions.
Model confidence: GB 68%Our line: GB -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
45.8% (7)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DET won. Projected margin was 6.3, the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DET
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 6.3. The market has GB at -4.0.
Detroit Lions won, GB 9, DET 15. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 9, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 2.5 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: GB -0.034 against DET -0.006.
