2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ JAX – Week 9 2022
LV
JAX
LV
AWAY
20@27
JAX +7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 63%Projected margin: -2.7
LV
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but JAX won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -129 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW9 2025 | JAX 30, LV 29 | JAX | W |
| JAX@LVW16 2024 | JAX 14, LV 19 | JAX | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES