LV @ JAX – Week 9 2022
LV
JAX
LV
AWAY
20@27
JAX BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: LV 63%Our line: LV -4.3
LV
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.000Offense EPA / play+0.046
+0.064Defense EPA / play-0.021
43.1%Offense success %46.3%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -129 | +116 |
| Our fair price | -167 | +167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3 SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs1653 yd · 12 TD
Derek Carr102 yd · 0 TD
Jarrett Stidham84 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams100 rec · 1516 yd · 14 TD
Mack Hollins57 rec · 690 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@LVW9 2025 | JAX 30, LV 29 | JAX | W |
| JAX@LVW16 2024 | JAX 14, LV 19 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.3. The market has LV at -2.5.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 30, LV 29 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: LV -0.064 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
