Seahawks vs Steelers – Week 6 2021
SEA
PIT
SEA
AWAY
20@23
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: SEA 51%Our line: SEA -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.003Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.031 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.028 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
43.2% (21)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@PITW2 2025 | SEA 31, PIT 17 | SEA | W |
| PIT@SEAW17 2023 | PIT 30, SEA 23 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs PIT
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 0.2. The market has SEA at +5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, SEA 20, PIT 23. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +5.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 6, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 3.5 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, PIT 17 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.003 against PIT -0.090.
