2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ DAL – Week 4 2023
NE
DAL
NE
AWAY
3@38
DAL +35
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DAL 69%Projected margin: 5.2
DAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 35. Off by 29.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -285 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5SEASON PPR
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
145.7SEASON PPR
Hunter Henry
TE
119.9SEASON PPR
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NEW6 2021 | DAL 35, NE 29 | DAL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES