DET @ GB – Week 4 2023
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
34@20
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: DET 58%Our line: DET -2.6
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-136
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.056
+0.064Offense EPA / play+0.064
-0.029Defense EPA / play+0.008
46.1%Offense success %44.6%
42.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 14. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 |
| Our fair price | -136 | +136 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1 SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
242.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff4575 yd · 30 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1015 yd · 13 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs945 yd · 10 TD
Craig Reynolds179 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown119 rec · 1515 yd · 10 TD
Sam LaPorta86 rec · 889 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 2.6. The market has DET at -2.5.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against GB +0.056.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
