2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ GB – Week 4 2023
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
34@20
DET +14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 58%Projected margin: -0.4
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 14. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
242.1SEASON PPR
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES