Lions vs Packers – Week 4 2023
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
34@20
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 34, Green Bay Packers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 4 Packers.
Model confidence: DET 58%Our line: DET -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.056
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
46.1% (6)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 2.6. Actual: 14. Off by 11.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 2.6. The market has DET at -2.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 34, GB 20. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against GB +0.056.
