2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ CLE – Week 4 2023
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
28@3
BAL +25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 50%Projected margin: 0.6
CLE
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but BAL won. Projected margin was 0.6 -- the model overestimated by 25.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0SEASON PPR
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
| CLE@BALW10 2023 | CLE 33, BAL 31 | BAL | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES