Ravens vs Browns – Week 4 2023
BAL
CLE
BAL
AWAY
28@3
BAL BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 28, Cleveland Browns 3.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Ravens.
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.215Net EPA / play+0.045
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
47.4% (3)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but BAL won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 25.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CLEW6 2026 | BAL 10, CLE 13 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CLEW11 2025 | BAL 23, CLE 16 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW2 2025 | CLE 17, BAL 41 | BAL | W |
| CLE@BALW18 2024 | CLE 10, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CLEW8 2024 | BAL 24, CLE 29 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 0.0. The market has CLE at +2.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 28, CLE 3. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +2.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 4, the Baltimore Ravens were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 5.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, BAL 10, CLE 13 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against CLE +0.045.
