Falcons vs Jaguars – Week 4 2023
ATL
JAX
ATL
AWAY
7@23
JAX BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 23.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
41.1% (20)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 16. Off by 12.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@JAXW12 2021 | ATL 21, JAX 14 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.9. The market has JAX at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, ATL 7, JAX 23. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 4.6 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 21, JAX 14 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: ATL -0.040 against JAX -0.034.
