ATL @ JAX – Week 4 2023
ATL
JAX
ATL
AWAY
7@23
JAX BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.099Offense EPA / play-0.070
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.036
41.1%Offense success %42.1%
39.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.9. Actual: 16. Off by 12.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +154 | -185 |
| Our fair price | +160 | -160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
62%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3 SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Bijan Robinson976 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier683 yd · 4 TD
Desmond Ridder193 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London69 rec · 905 yd · 2 TD
Kyle Pitts53 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@JAXW12 2021 | ATL 21, JAX 14 | ATL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.9. The market has JAX at -3.5.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 21, JAX 14 in Week 12 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: ATL -0.040 against JAX -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
