2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ JAX – Week 4 2023
ATL
JAX
ATL
AWAY
7@23
JAX +16
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 61%Projected margin: 2.1
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 16. Off by 13.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -185 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@JAXW12 2021 | ATL 21, JAX 14 | ATL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES