Dolphins vs Bills – Week 4 2023
MIA
BUF
MIA
AWAY
20@48
BUF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 20, Buffalo Bills 48.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 66%Our line: BUF -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.182
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
47.2% (5)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 28. Off by 22.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@MIAW10 2025 | BUF 13, MIA 30 | BUF | L |
| MIA@BUFW3 2025 | MIA 21, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
| MIA@BUFW9 2024 | MIA 27, BUF 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW2 2024 | BUF 31, MIA 10 | BUF | W |
| BUF@MIAW18 2023 | BUF 21, MIA 14 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.6. The market has BUF at -2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, MIA 20, BUF 48. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 6.5 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, BUF 13, MIA 30 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: MIA +0.136 against BUF +0.182.
