PIT @ HOU – Week 4 2023
PIT
HOU
PIT
AWAY
6@30
HOU BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.8
OUR LINE
-256
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.073Offense EPA / play-0.028
-0.060Defense EPA / play-0.043
42.0%Offense success %40.9%
41.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but HOU won. Projected margin was 7.8, the model overestimated by 31.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -256 | +256 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+13%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4 SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
195.5 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1035 yd · 8 TD
Jaylen Warren784 yd · 4 TD
Calvin Austin III57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
George Pickens63 rec · 1140 yd · 5 TD
Diontae Johnson51 rec · 717 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@PITW3 2020 | HOU 21, PIT 28 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.8. The market has PIT at -3.0.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, HOU 21, PIT 28 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: PIT -0.013 against HOU +0.014.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
