Steelers vs Texans – Week 4 2023
PIT
HOU
PIT
AWAY
6@30
HOU BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 6, Houston Texans 30.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 4 Texans.
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.013Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.073 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
42.0% (17)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but HOU won. Projected margin was 7.8, the model overestimated by 31.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Kenny Pickett2070 yd · 6 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@PITW3 2020 | HOU 21, PIT 28 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs HOU
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.8. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Houston Texans won, PIT 6, HOU 30. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 6.0 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, HOU 21, PIT 28 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: PIT -0.013 against HOU +0.014.
