2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ HOU – Week 4 2023
PIT
HOU
PIT
AWAY
6@30
HOU +24
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 72%Projected margin: -5.7
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-5.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but HOU won. Projected margin was 5.7 -- the model overestimated by 29.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
195.5SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@PITW3 2020 | HOU 21, PIT 28 | PIT | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES