2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ ARI – Week 3 2020
DET
ARI
DET
AWAY
26@23
DET +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 63%Projected margin: 5.0
ARI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
5.0
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DET won. Projected margin was 5.0 -- the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| ARI@DETW15 2021 | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES