Lions vs Cardinals – Week 3 2020
DET
ARI
DET
AWAY
26@23
DET BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 26, Arizona Cardinals 23.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 63%Our line: ARI -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.208Net EPA / play+0.031
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.038 (14)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (11)
44.3% (21)Offense success %45.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DET won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 7.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW5 2026 | DET 45, ARI 21 | DET | W |
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| ARI@DETW15 2021 | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 4.5. The market has ARI at -4.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 26, ARI 23. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -4.5, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 3, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 8.2 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 45, ARI 21 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: DET -0.208 against ARI +0.031.
