2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ ARI – Week 3 2024
DET
ARI
DET
AWAY
20@13
DET +7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 66%Projected margin: -3.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.7. Actual: 7. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
316.2SEASON PPR
ARI
K.Murray
QB
297.2SEASON PPR
J.Conner
RB
253.8SEASON PPR
T.McBride
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@DETW15 2021 | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI | L |
| DET@ARIW3 2020 | DET 26, ARI 23 | ARI | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES