Bears vs Colts – Week 3 2024
CHI
IND
CHI
AWAY
16@21
IND BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 16, Indianapolis Colts 21.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears.
Model confidence: IND 60%Our line: IND -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
39.9% (30)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.6. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@CHIW4 2020 | IND 19, CHI 11 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.6. The market has IND at -1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, CHI 16, IND 21. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -1.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 1.8 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 19, CHI 11 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: CHI -0.088 against IND -0.061.
