Ravens vs Cowboys – Week 3 2024
BAL
DAL
BAL
AWAY
28@25
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 28, Dallas Cowboys 25.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: DAL 60%Our line: DAL -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.269Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
50.0% (2)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but BAL won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@DALW3 2026 | BAL 34, DAL 31 | DAL | L |
| DAL@BALW13 2020 | DAL 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 3.4. The market has DAL at +1.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 28, DAL 25. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +1.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 1.4 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 34, DAL 31 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against DAL -0.192.
