2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ DAL – Week 3 2024
BAL
DAL
BAL
AWAY
28@25
BAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 60%Projected margin: 1.3
DAL
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
1.3
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but BAL won. Projected margin was 1.3 -- the model overestimated by 4.3 points.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +100 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@BALW13 2020 | DAL 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES