2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ NO – Week 3 2024
PHI
NO
PHI
AWAY
15@12
PHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 68%Projected margin: 5.4
NO
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
5.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but PHI won. Projected margin was 5.4 -- the model overestimated by 8.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
216.9SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@PHIW17 2022 | NO 20, PHI 10 | PHI | L |
| NO@PHIW11 2021 | NO 29, PHI 40 | NO | L |
| NO@PHIW14 2020 | NO 21, PHI 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES