Panthers vs Raiders – Week 3 2024
CAR
LV
CAR
AWAY
36@22
CAR BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 36, Las Vegas Raiders 22.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 73%Our line: LV -8.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -8.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.213Net EPA / play-0.164
-0.053 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (31)
+0.160 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.021 (19)
41.3% (22)Offense success %40.5% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CAR won. Projected margin was 8.3, the model overestimated by 22.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LV by 8.3. The market has LV at -5.5.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 36, LV 22. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -5.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 5.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 34, CAR 30 in Week 1 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Las Vegas Raiders: CAR -0.213 against LV -0.164.
