2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ LV – Week 3 2024
CAR
LV
CAR
AWAY
36@22
CAR +14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 73%Projected margin: 8.3
LV
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
8.3
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but CAR won. Projected margin was 8.3 -- the model overestimated by 22.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
130.8SEASON PPR
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@CARW1 2020 | LV 34, CAR 30 | LV | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES