2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ CIN – Week 3 2024
WAS
CIN
WAS
AWAY
38@33
WAS +5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 67%Projected margin: 4.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but WAS won. Projected margin was 4.8 -- the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -355 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
No noteworthy trends
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
J.Daniels
QB
355.8SEASON PPR
T.McLaurin
WR
267.8SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
177.4SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@WASW11 2020 | CIN 9, WAS 20 | CIN | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES