Commanders vs Bengals – Week 3 2024
WAS
CIN
WAS
AWAY
38@33
WAS BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 38, Cincinnati Bengals 33.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 67%Our line: CIN -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
48.5% (4)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but WAS won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 11.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@WASW11 2020 | CIN 9, WAS 20 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.0. The market has CIN at -7.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 38, CIN 33. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -7.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 0.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Washington Commanders, CIN 9, WAS 20 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: WAS +0.128 against CIN +0.053.
