2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ MIN – Week 3 2024
HOU
MIN
HOU
AWAY
7@34
MIN +27
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 59%Projected margin: -0.4
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but MIN won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 27.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
210.6SEASON PPR
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
317.5SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
308.0SEASON PPR
A.Jones
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@HOUW4 2020 | MIN 31, HOU 23 | MIN | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES