Texans vs Vikings – Week 3 2024
HOU
MIN
HOU
AWAY
7@34
MIN BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 7, Minnesota Vikings 34.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: HOU 59%Our line: HOU -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.015Net EPA / play+0.103
-0.050 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.016 (15)
-0.065 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (3)
38.8% (31)Offense success %45.6% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 30.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 29.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@HOUW4 2020 | MIN 31, HOU 23 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs MIN
Our model takes Houston Texans at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.2. The market has HOU at -2.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, HOU 7, MIN 34. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -2.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 3, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 31, HOU 23 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Minnesota Vikings: HOU +0.015 against MIN +0.103.
