Lions vs Cardinals – Week 5 2026
DET
ARI
DET
AWAY
45@21
DET BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Lions, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: DET 67%Our line: DET -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.029Net EPA / play-0.142
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (16)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.124 (29)
49.1% (4)Offense success %45.9% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 24. Off by 17.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| ARI@DETW15 2021 | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI | L |
| DET@ARIW3 2020 | DET 26, ARI 23 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ARI
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 6.1. The market has DET at -5.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 45, ARI 21. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -5.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 5, the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 5.9 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 20, ARI 13 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.029 against ARI -0.142.
