DET @ ARI – Week 5 2026
DET
ARI
DET
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: DET 72%Projected margin: -5.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-8.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-340
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.081Offense EPA / play-0.018
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.2%Offense success %43.0%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
DET backed by epa edge at 72%.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.081 EPA/play on offense. ARI's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
DET is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.6 for ARI. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -340 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
J.Gibbs77 rec · 616 yd · 5 TD
S.LaPorta40 rec · 489 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,564PASSyds3,366
1,984RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| ARI@DETW15 2021 | ARI 12, DET 30 | ARI | L |
| DET@ARIW3 2020 | DET 26, ARI 23 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ARI
Who is favored in Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 5.5. The market has DET at -8.5.
When do the Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals game?
Detroit Lions, 20-13 in Week 3 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Detroit Lions or the Arizona Cardinals?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
