Cowboys vs Seahawks – Week 3 2020
DAL
SEA
DAL
AWAY
31@38
SEA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 31, Seattle Seahawks 38.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 55%Our line: SEA -1.8
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
47.6
VEGAS LINE
58.0
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
SEA -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -1.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
| SOURCE | DAL | SEA | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +208 | -237 | 68.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 7:59 PM ET.
RESULT Won · +$0.45
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.098Net EPA / play+0.047
-0.038 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (11)
+0.060 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.040 (17)
45.7% (17)Offense success %48.2% (6)
45.7% (18)Defense success %45.5% (15)
-0.040 (25)Pass EPA / play+0.117 (12)
-0.036 (20)Rush EPA / play+0.040 (7)
24.7 (17)Points / game28.7 (8)
29.6 (28)Points allowed / game23.2 (15)
61.4%Pass rate60.8%
82.6%Red zone TD %90.5%
26.1%4th down go %14.4%
CowboysSeahawks
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 1.8. Actual: 7. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
NEXT GEN STATS
EXP COMP %
66.5%
Russell WilsonSEA
TIME TO THROW
2.76s
Dak PrescottDAL
SEPARATION
4.3 yds
Tyler LockettSEA
RUSH EFFICIENCY
4.3
Chris CarsonSEA
AGGRESSIVENESS
19.3%
Dak PrescottDAL
AVG YAC
14.5 yds
Ced WilsonDAL
GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE
SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS
DAL ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
13.9%
DROP %
4.7%
PRESSURE %
23.7%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.4
YAC/ATT
1.8
BROKEN TACKLES
26
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
71.2%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
91.3
MISSED TACKLE %
11.1%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2020 SEASON
SEA ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
17.1%
DROP %
4.9%
PRESSURE %
27.7%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
3.3
YAC/ATT
2.0
BROKEN TACKLES
21
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
68.9%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
84.9
MISSED TACKLE %
7.3%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2020 SEASON
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
SEA win probability from kickoff to the final whistle, the game’s actual in-game trajectory, not our pregame pick. Source: nflfastR play-by-play
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SEA
Russell Wilson
QB
359.8 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
271.3 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
CeeDee Lamb74 rec · 935 yd · 5 TD
Michael Gallup59 rec · 843 yd · 5 TD
Dalton Schultz63 rec · 615 yd · 4 TD
VS
PASS yds
2,1704,212
RUSH yds
1,5281,550
REC yds
3,5073,061
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
Tyler Lockett100 rec · 1054 yd · 10 TD
David Moore35 rec · 417 yd · 6 TD
Chris Carson37 rec · 287 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DALW13 2023 | SEA 35, DAL 41 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 1.8. The market has SEA at -5.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, DAL 31, SEA 38. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -5.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 3, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 58.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 10.4 below the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, SEA 35, DAL 41 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Seattle Seahawks: DAL -0.098 against SEA +0.047.