Buccaneers vs Broncos – Week 3 2020
TB
DEN
TB
AWAY
28@10
TB BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Denver Broncos 10.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 48% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Buccaneers, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 48%Our line: DEN +0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN +0.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
48%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
45.9% (15)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but TB won. Projected margin was 0.6, the model overestimated by 17.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 48% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.6. The market has DEN at +6.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 28, DEN 10. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 48% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at +6.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 5.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 26, TB 7 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against DEN -0.147.
