TB @ DEN – Week 3 2020

DEN C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.

Model picked DEN but TB won. Projected margin was 2.6 -- the model overestimated by 15.4 points.

Missed the spread by 12.0 points.

The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.

Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.