2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ IND – Week 5 2025
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
6@40
IND +34
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 73%Projected margin: 6.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 34. Off by 27.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.36 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES