LV @ IND – Week 5 2025
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
6@40
IND BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 73%Our line: IND -8.3
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.3
OUR LINE
-272
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.072
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.004
37.6%Offense success %46.3%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 8.3. Actual: 34. Off by 25.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +285 | -360 |
| Our fair price | +272 | -272 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
75%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1 SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2 SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 8.3. The market has IND at -7.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, LV 20, IND 23 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: LV -0.240 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
