Raiders vs Colts – Week 5 2025
LV
IND
LV
AWAY
6@40
IND BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 5
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 6, Indianapolis Colts 40.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 73%Our line: IND -8.3
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -8.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
37.6% (30)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 8.3. Actual: 34. Off by 25.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@INDW17 2023 | LV 20, IND 23 | IND | W |
| IND@LVW10 2022 | IND 25, LV 20 | LV | L |
| LV@INDW17 2021 | LV 23, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@LVW14 2020 | IND 44, LV 27 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 8.3. The market has IND at -7.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, LV 6, IND 40. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -7.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, LV 20, IND 23 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: LV -0.240 against IND +0.068.
