2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ DET – Week 12 2021
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
16@14
CHI +2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: CHI 59%Projected margin: -4.5
CHI
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
-4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 4.5. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-2.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -129 | Won · +$0.75 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
Darnell Mooney
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
195.0SEASON PPR
Justin Fields
QB
126.8SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES