Bears vs Lions – Week 12 2021
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
16@14
CHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 16, Detroit Lions 14.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bears, 5 Lions.
Model confidence: CHI 59%Our line: CHI -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -2.9
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.127Net EPA / play-0.161
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
41.2% (26)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 2.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-2.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.9. The market has CHI at -2.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 16, DET 14. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -2.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 12, the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, THU 12:30 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Chicago Bears: CHI -0.127 against DET -0.161.
