2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ DEN – Week 12 2021
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
13@28
DEN +15
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 56%Projected margin: -2.8
LAC
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.8 -- the model overestimated by 17.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -141 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES