Chargers vs Broncos – Week 12 2021
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
13@28
DEN BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 13, Denver Broncos 28.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: LAC 56%Our line: LAC -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.004
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
47.6% (6)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 17.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.2. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Denver Broncos won, LAC 13, DEN 28. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.061 against DEN +0.004.
