NO @ LV – Week 2 2020
NO
LV
NO
AWAY
24@34
LV BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-171
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.093Offense EPA / play+0.045
-0.084Defense EPA / play+0.130
47.6%Offense success %46.5%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but LV won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 14.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -201 | +180 |
| Our fair price | -171 | +171 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
377.8 SEASON PPR
Drew Brees
QB
209.5 SEASON PPR
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
164.8 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara932 yd · 16 TD
Latavius Murray656 yd · 4 TD
Ty Montgomery101 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Alvin Kamara83 rec · 756 yd · 5 TD
Emmanuel Sanders61 rec · 726 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW8 2022 | LV 0, NO 24 | LV | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs LV
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 4.5. The market has NO at -4.0.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 25, NO 10 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against LV -0.085.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
