Saints vs Raiders – Week 2 2020
NO
LV
NO
AWAY
24@34
LV BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 24, Las Vegas Raiders 34.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SOURCE | NO | LV | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -201 | +180 | 65.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
47.6% (8)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but LV won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 14.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW3 2026 | LV 35, NO 27 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW8 2022 | LV 0, NO 24 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs LV
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 4.5. The market has NO at -4.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, NO 24, LV 34. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -4.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 35, NO 27 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against LV -0.085.
