JAX @ TEN – Week 2 2020
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
30@33
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 59%Our line: TEN -3.1
TEN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.171
+0.145Defense EPA / play+0.117
41.5%Offense success %50.1%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +254 | -295 |
| Our fair price | +145 | -145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-13%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
Keelan Cole55 rec · 642 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.1. The market has TEN at -7.0.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: JAX -0.204 against TEN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
