Jaguars vs Titans – Week 2 2020
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
30@33
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 30, Tennessee Titans 33.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 2 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 59%Our line: TEN -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
73%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
| SOURCE | JAX | TEN | TEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +254 | -295 | 73.2% |
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.059 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
+0.145 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
41.5% (28)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TEN by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.1. The market has TEN at -7.0.
Tennessee Titans won, JAX 30, TEN 33. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -7.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 2, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: JAX -0.204 against TEN +0.053.
