NYG @ CHI – Week 2 2020
NYG
CHI
NYG
AWAY
13@17
CHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 59%Our line: CHI -3.0
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.086Net EPA / play-0.033
-0.056Offense EPA / play-0.028
+0.031Defense EPA / play+0.006
41.6%Offense success %43.6%
46.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 3.0. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +196 | -222 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
180.0 SEASON PPR
Sterling Shepard
WR
162.5 SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
141.0 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones2943 yd · 11 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Wayne Gallman682 yd · 6 TD
Daniel Jones423 yd · 1 TD
Alfred Morris238 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton50 rec · 751 yd · 3 TD
Sterling Shepard66 rec · 656 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CHIW10 2025 | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NYGW4 2022 | CHI 12, NYG 20 | CHI | L |
| NYG@CHIW17 2021 | NYG 3, CHI 29 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 3.0. The market has CHI at -4.5.
Week 2 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NYG 20, CHI 24 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: NYG -0.086 against CHI -0.033.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
