Saints vs Falcons – Week 4 2024
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
24@26
ATL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 24, Atlanta Falcons 26.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: NO 65%Our line: NO -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.101Net EPA / play-0.027
-0.057 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
+0.044 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
40.6% (23)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 5.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ATL
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 5.0. The market has NO at +2.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, NO 24, ATL 26. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Atlanta Falcons: NO -0.101 against ATL -0.027.
