2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ ATL – Week 4 2024
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
24@26
ATL +2
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 65%Projected margin: -2.9
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ATL won. Projected margin was 2.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +120 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
| NO@ATLW12 2023 | NO 15, ATL 24 | NO | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES