Texans vs Bills – Week 4 2021
HOU
BUF
HOU
AWAY
0@40
BUF BY 40
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 0, Buffalo Bills 40.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Texans, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 74%Our line: BUF -8.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -19.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -8.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
37.4% (32)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 40. Off by 31.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@HOUW1 2026 | BUF 36, HOU 31 | HOU | L |
| BUF@HOUW12 2025 | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| BUF@HOUW5 2024 | BUF 20, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 8.9. The market has BUF at -19.0.
Buffalo Bills won, HOU 0, BUF 40. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -19.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 19.0 points.
In Week 4, the Houston Texans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 1.1 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 36, HOU 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: HOU -0.212 against BUF +0.242.
