Titans vs Jets – Week 4 2021
TEN
NYJ
TEN
AWAY
24@27
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 24, New York Jets 27.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Titans, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: TEN 69%Our line: TEN -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.092 (27)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.128 (32)
44.6% (15)Offense success %41.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@TENW1 2026 | NYJ 23, TEN 10 | TEN | L |
| NYJ@TENW2 2024 | NYJ 24, TEN 17 | NYJ | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs NYJ
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 6.8. The market has TEN at -5.5.
New York Jets won, TEN 24, NYJ 27. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -5.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 4, the Tennessee Titans were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 23, TEN 10 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.055 against NYJ -0.220.
