2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ NYJ – Week 4 2021
TEN
NYJ
TEN
AWAY
24@27
NYJ +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TEN 69%Projected margin: -9.1
TEN
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-9.1
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 9.1 -- the model overestimated by 12.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -234 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
78°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@TENW2 2024 | NYJ 24, TEN 17 | NYJ | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES