Cardinals vs Rams – Week 4 2021
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
37@20
ARI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 37, Los Angeles Rams 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: LA 57%Our line: LA -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.122Net EPA / play+0.102
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
-0.049 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
46.8% (9)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but ARI won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 19.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW6 2026 | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA | L |
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 2.4. The market has LA at -3.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 37, LA 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 6.7 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 18, LA 16 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against LA +0.102.
