2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ LA – Week 4 2021
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
37@20
ARI +17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 57%Projected margin: 3.4
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but ARI won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 20.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -200 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6SEASON PPR
LA
Cooper Kupp
WR
439.5SEASON PPR
Matthew Stafford
QB
329.7SEASON PPR
Van Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES