2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ CHI – Week 14 2020
HOU
CHI
HOU
AWAY
7@36
CHI +29
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 55%Projected margin: -1.7
HOU
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CHI won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 30.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.0 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
1 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9SEASON PPR
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@HOUW2 2024 | CHI 13, HOU 19 | HOU | W |
| HOU@CHIW3 2022 | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES