Texans vs Bears – Week 14 2020
HOU
CHI
HOU
AWAY
7@36
CHI BY 29
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 7, Chicago Bears 36.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: HOU 55%Our line: HOU -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -1.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.071Net EPA / play-0.033
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (24)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (10)
47.6% (7)Offense success %43.6% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CHI won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 30.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 30.0 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
1 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@HOUW2 2024 | CHI 13, HOU 19 | HOU | W |
| HOU@CHIW3 2022 | HOU 20, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CHI
Our model takes Houston Texans at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 1.5. The market has HOU at -1.0.
Chicago Bears won, HOU 7, CHI 36. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -1.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 14, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 0.8 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, CHI 13, HOU 19 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: HOU -0.071 against CHI -0.033.
