Bengals vs Vikings – Week 3 2025
CIN
MIN
CIN
AWAY
10@48
MIN BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 10, Minnesota Vikings 48.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: CIN 64%Our line: CIN -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -4.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
45.5% (11)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but MIN won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 42.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 35.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CINW15 2023 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN | W |
| MIN@CINW1 2021 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.8. The market has CIN at +3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, CIN 10, MIN 48. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at +3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, MIN 24, CIN 27 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: CIN -0.138 against MIN -0.016.
