CIN @ MIN – Week 3 2025
CIN
MIN
CIN
AWAY
10@48
MIN BY 38
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 64%Our line: CIN -4.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-177
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.130Defense EPA / play-0.100
45.5%Offense success %42.6%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but MIN won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 42.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 35.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 |
| Our fair price | -177 | +177 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CINW15 2023 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | CIN | W |
| MIN@CINW1 2021 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.8. The market has CIN at +3.0.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, MIN 24, CIN 27 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: CIN -0.138 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
