Cowboys vs Bears – Week 3 2025
DAL
CHI
DAL
AWAY
14@31
CHI BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 14, Chicago Bears 31.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 5 Bears.
Model confidence: DAL 71%Our line: DAL -7.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -7.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
46.6% (6)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CHI won. Projected margin was 7.3, the model overestimated by 24.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@DALW8 2022 | CHI 29, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CHI
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.3. The market has DAL at -1.5.
Chicago Bears won, DAL 14, CHI 31. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -1.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 5.5 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, CHI 29, DAL 49 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: DAL -0.070 against CHI +0.061.
