2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ CHI – Week 3 2025
DAL
CHI
DAL
AWAY
14@31
CHI +17
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 71%Projected margin: -4.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CHI won. Projected margin was 4.8 -- the model overestimated by 21.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@DALW8 2022 | CHI 29, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES