Bears vs Cowboys – Week 8 2022
CHI
DAL
CHI
AWAY
29@49
DAL BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 29, Dallas Cowboys 49.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 70%Our line: DAL -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.109
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (11)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.097 (2)
40.5% (27)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 20. Off by 12.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CHIW3 2025 | DAL 14, CHI 31 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.2. The market has DAL at -10.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, CHI 29, DAL 49. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -10.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 8, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 4.2 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, DAL 14, CHI 31 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: CHI -0.164 against DAL +0.109.
