2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ TB – Week 8 2022
BAL
TB
BAL
AWAY
27@22
BAL +5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 59%Projected margin: 1.4
TB
PICK SIDE
-2.0
SPREAD
1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but BAL won. Projected margin was 1.4 -- the model overestimated by 6.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -128 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TBW7 2024 | BAL 41, TB 31 | BAL | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES