GB @ BUF – Week 8 2022
GB
BUF
GB
AWAY
17@27
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.7
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.7
OUR LINE
-223
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.003Offense EPA / play+0.116
+0.037Defense EPA / play-0.052
45.8%Offense success %49.0%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 10. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +365 | -445 |
| Our fair price | +223 | -223 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
GB
Aaron Jones
RB
248.6 SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
239.2 SEASON PPR
Allen Lazard
WR
174.8 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Aaron Rodgers3695 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Aaron Jones1121 yd · 2 TD
AJ Dillon770 yd · 7 TD
Aaron Rodgers94 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Lazard60 rec · 788 yd · 6 TD
Christian Watson41 rec · 611 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.7. The market has BUF at -10.5.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: GB -0.034 against BUF +0.168.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
