Packers vs Bills – Week 8 2022
GB
BUF
GB
AWAY
17@27
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Buffalo Bills 27.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.116 (2)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.052 (7)
45.8% (7)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 10. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.7. The market has BUF at -10.5.
Buffalo Bills won, GB 17, BUF 27. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 8, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 0.8 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: GB -0.034 against BUF +0.168.
