2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ IND – Week 8 2022
WAS
IND
WAS
AWAY
17@16
WAS +1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 59%Projected margin: 1.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but WAS won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 2.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -151 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES