Commanders vs Colts – Week 8 2022
WAS
IND
WAS
AWAY
17@16
WAS BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 17, Indianapolis Colts 16.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders, 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.078 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
-0.075 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
40.4% (28)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 4.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@WASW4 2026 | IND 30, WAS 13 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.0. The market has IND at -3.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 17, IND 16. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -3.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 4.1 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 30, WAS 13 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.003 against IND -0.141.
