WAS @ IND – Week 8 2022
WAS
IND
WAS
AWAY
17@16
WAS BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -3.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.078Offense EPA / play-0.168
-0.075Defense EPA / play-0.027
40.4%Offense success %39.8%
39.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 4.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | WAS | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -151 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
229.0 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
176.3 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
165.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke1859 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Brian Robinson797 yd · 2 TD
Antonio Gibson546 yd · 3 TD
Curtis Samuel187 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1191 yd · 5 TD
Curtis Samuel64 rec · 656 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.0. The market has IND at -3.0.
The model projects 44.6 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.003 against IND -0.141.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
