Dolphins vs Lions – Week 8 2022
MIA
DET
MIA
AWAY
31@27
MIA BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 31, Detroit Lions 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 6 Lions.
Model confidence: MIA 71%Our line: MIA -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.039Net EPA / play-0.006
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
44.5% (16)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 4. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs DET
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.7. The market has MIA at -3.5.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 31, DET 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 8, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 3.8 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against DET -0.006.
