Packers vs Bears – Week 1 2023
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
38@20
GB BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 38, Chicago Bears 20.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 77%Our line: GB -9.9
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -9.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
77%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
48%
DIFFERENCE
+29%
| SOURCE | GB | CHI | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -102 |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.007
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
44.6% (9)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 18. Off by 8.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 9.9. The market has GB at +1.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 38, CHI 20. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +1.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 1, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against CHI -0.007.
