2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ CAR – Week 10 2022
ATL
CAR
ATL
AWAY
15@25
CAR +10
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 64%Projected margin: -3.1
ATL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.1 -- the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -132 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
159.4SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ATLW11 2025 | CAR 30, ATL 27 | CAR | W |
| ATL@CARW3 2025 | ATL 0, CAR 30 | ATL | L |
| CAR@ATLW18 2024 | CAR 44, ATL 38 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CARW6 2024 | ATL 38, CAR 20 | ATL | W |
| ATL@CARW15 2023 | ATL 7, CAR 9 | ATL | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES