Seahawks vs Buccaneers – Week 10 2022
SEA
TB
SEA
AWAY
16@21
TB BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 16, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks, 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: SEA 59%Our line: SEA -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.003 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.020 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
44.2% (17)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but TB won. Projected margin was 2.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@SEAW5 2025 | TB 38, SEA 35 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs TB
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.9. The market has SEA at +2.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, SEA 16, TB 21. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +2.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 10, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 2.1 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 38, SEA 35 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: SEA -0.023 against TB -0.013.
