2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ TB – Week 10 2022
SEA
TB
SEA
AWAY
16@21
TB +5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 59%Projected margin: -1.0
SEA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but TB won. Projected margin was 1.0 -- the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
226.8SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
271.7SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
226.1SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@SEAW5 2025 | TB 38, SEA 35 | SEA | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES