SEA @ TB – Week 10 2022
SEA
TB
SEA
AWAY
16@21
TB BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 59%Our line: SEA -2.9
SEA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.9
OUR LINE
-141
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.003Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.020Defense EPA / play-0.025
44.2%Offense success %43.8%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but TB won. Projected margin was 2.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -138 |
| Our fair price | -141 | +141 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
303.9 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
239.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
226.8 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith4282 yd · 30 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III1050 yd · 9 TD
Geno Smith366 yd · 1 TD
Rashaad Penny346 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf90 rec · 1048 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Lockett84 rec · 1033 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@SEAW5 2025 | TB 38, SEA 35 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.9. The market has SEA at +2.5.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 38, SEA 35 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: SEA -0.023 against TB -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
