2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ NO – Week 1 2021
GB
NO
GB
AWAY
3@38
NO +35
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 51%Projected margin: 0.7
GB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NO won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 34.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 39.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -181 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
229.0SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GBW16 2024 | NO 0, GB 34 | GB | W |
| NO@GBW3 2023 | NO 17, GB 18 | GB | W |
| GB@NOW3 2020 | GB 37, NO 30 | GB | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES