Packers vs Saints – Week 1 2021
GB
NO
GB
AWAY
3@38
NO BY 35
FINAL · WEEK 1
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 3, New Orleans Saints 38.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: GB 51%Our line: GB -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -0.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
| SOURCE | GB | NO | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -181 | +162 | 63.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (24)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.109 (2)
48.6% (3)Offense success %40.6% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but NO won. Projected margin was 0.4, the model overestimated by 35.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 39.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@GBW16 2024 | NO 0, GB 34 | GB | W |
| NO@GBW3 2023 | NO 17, GB 18 | GB | W |
| GB@NOW3 2020 | GB 37, NO 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs NO
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.4. The market has GB at -4.0.
New Orleans Saints won, GB 3, NO 38. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 1, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, NO 0, GB 34 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against NO +0.035.
